Search results for " model uncertainty"

showing 3 items of 3 documents

Unawareness, Priors and Posteriors

2008

Abstract. This note contains first thoughts on awareness of unawareness in a simple dynamic context where a decision situation is repeated over time. The main consequence of increasing awareness is that the model the decision maker uses, and the prior which it contains, becomes richer over time. The decision maker is prepared to this change, and we show that if a projection-consistency axiom is satisfied unawareness does not affect the value of her estimate of a payoff-relevant conditional probability (although it may weaken confidence in such estimate). Probability-zero events however pose a challenge to this axiom, and if that fails, even estimate values will be different if the decision …

media_common.quotation_subjectConditional probabilityContext (language use)CertaintyVariable (computer science)Prior probabilityStatisticsEconometricsAwareness of Unawareness Model UncertaintyGeneral Economics Econometrics and FinanceValue (mathematics)FinanceAxiomMathematicsSimple (philosophy)media_common
researchProduct

Bayesian model averaging and weighted-average least squares: Equivariance, stability, and numerical issues

2011

In this article, we describe the estimation of linear regression models with uncertainty about the choice of the explanatory variables. We introduce the Stata commands bma and wals, which implement, respectively, the exact Bayesian model-averaging estimator and the weighted-average least-squares estimator developed by Magnus, Powell, and Prüfer (2010, Journal of Econometrics 154: 139–153). Unlike standard pretest estimators that are based on some preliminary diagnostic test, these model-averaging estimators provide a coherent way of making inference on the regression parameters of interest by taking into account the uncertainty due to both the estimation and the model selection steps. Spec…

Mathematical optimizationWalsBayesian probabilityStability (learning theory)Bayesian analysisSettore SECS-P/05 - EconometriaInferenceBmaBayesian inference01 natural sciencesLeast squares010104 statistics & probabilityMathematics (miscellaneous)st0239 bma wals model uncertainty model averaging Bayesian analysis exact Bayesian model averaging weighted-average least squares0502 economics and businessLinear regressionWeighted-average least squares0101 mathematicsSettore SECS-P/01 - Economia Politica050205 econometrics Mathematicsst0239Exact bayesian model averagingModel selection05 social sciencesEstimatorModel uncertaintyAlgorithmModel averaging
researchProduct

A comprehensive analysis for N2O mechanisms by advanced mathematical techniques

2018

Recent evaluation of the existing activated sludge models, incorporating nitrous oxide (N2O) formation, is only based on the capabilities and inabilities in describing experimental data under different conditions. This paper will present an advanced mathematical modeling framework (i.e. coupling global sensitivity, identifiability and uncertainty analysis) for a comprehensive analysis on the evaluation of the structural differences among three ammonia oxidizing bacteria (AOB) two-pathway models in combination with two heterotrophic denitrification models. The analysis will be performed based on experimental data from a lab-scale deammonification granular sequencing batch reactor operated un…

DeammonificationN2O global sensitivity identifiability model uncertaintySettore ICAR/03 - Ingegneria Sanitaria-AmbientaleASM
researchProduct